Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
